The centre of gravity of the world is now in China.     

Frans Vandenbosch 方腾波 18.10.2023

Global economic and political power has shifted to China

It’s all over and done. The shift is made, we’re over the tipping point. The “pivot to the East” is accomplished. The battle is not over yet, but there is no point of return.

The GDP scam

Western mainstream media keep reporting nominal (raw) GDP. In western media, GDP figures at Purchasing power parity (PPP) are usually hidden or concealed. Essentially, GDP measured at PPP is a much more accurate way to compare living standards in various countries. PPP GDP controls for the different costs of living and price levels, enables a much more exact estimate of a nation’s level of production. 
No wonder all Chinese people have a huge savings account, that they pay for cars and houses in cash. The exuberating opulence of the Chinese society is very visible in all major cities and shopping centres. At the countryside, prosperity has risen even faster than in the cities.  

All the graphs here below are based on GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP), 2022 data as per the World Bank. The data can be downloaded from the website of the World Bank. [1]
For all the pie diagrams here below, I have counted the population of the SAR’s Hong Kong and Macau and Taiwan (a province of China as per the UN) with China.

Another fraud is the way GDP is measured in the USA. Michael Hudson: “Counting fees and transaction charges within the financial sector as GDP is simply fraud- it is like measuring blood pressure on a limb with a hundred leeches on it.”
China’s GDP growth reflects a different social phenomenon than that of the United States. Most American increase in GDP is money made by the financial sector, while China’s economic growth creates prosperity for all of the people. Michael Hudson again: “In the US, what you have today is the economy imagines that the financial sector, the real estate speculators, are part of the economy and part of GDP instead of being an overhead, a tumor.”
The US GDP is for a substantial part, just fried air.

The Chinese GDP

Xu Xianchun, research fellow at the National School of Development at Peking University and formerly a senior statistician, author of the book A Probe into China’s Official Statistics: Comprehension and Utilization explains how they compile the Chinese GDP figures. [2]

China’s GDP surpassed US GDP more than a decade ago.

Today, China is making 19.4 % of the global GDP, the USA 15.6%. More than half (50.4 %) of the global GDP is made in Asia.

The BRI, Belt and Road Initiative

The 155 BRI countries represent 52.6 % of the global GDP. A majority of the European countries are BRI members.

On 17 and 18 October 2023, more than 130 world leaders attended the BRI forum in Beijing. That’s the place where the important decisions are made. At the Beijing summit, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin reviewed solutions for expanding the BRI infrasstructure with several new railway lines through Central Asian countries, new connections between China and the other Eurasian countries. Also new gas pipelines are needed with agreements on the construction of Power of Siberia-2.
Both Viktor Orbán, prime minister of Hungary and Aleksandar Vučić, president of Serbia were welcomed as kings in China. And overwhelmed with proposals for new investments in their country.

Thai prime minister Thavisin, in Beijing for the BRI reunion, pitched a 1200 km, 25 billion EUR Kra Isthmus Canal, connecting the Andaman Sea to the Gulf of Thailand and bypassing Singapore and the Malacca Strait. Bidding and construction would begin in 2025. the project will create 280,000 jobs and raising Thailand’s economic growth to 5.5% annually.

The BRI is the biggest facilitator of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The BRI has an incredibly positive impact on regional and world development. The BRI lifted 40 million out of poverty and created over 400,000 jobs. [3]

It is there, at the BRI summits, that the world economy is shaped.

BRICS+


From 01.01.2024 on, the new BRICS+ will count 11 member states:
China, India Russia, China (with Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR, Taiwan), India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, South Africa, Ethiopia, Brazil and Argentina. Their combined GDP is 38% of the global GDP. In comparision, the combined GDP of the G7 countries is only 30%.

Global population

China counts for 18.4 % of the global population, the USA for 4.1 %  The combined population of continental Europe plus North America is still less than the Chinese population. There are more people living in China than in the whole continent of Africa.

SCO

The SCO, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, is an international security, intelligence and defence organization founded by China and Russia in 2001. The regular members are China, Russia, Iran, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Belarus. For the graph, I have counted the population of the SAR’s Hong Kong and Macau and Taiwan, province of China with China. Mongolia is an observer state in the waiting room. Then there are the dialogue partners; that are states, who do not meet all the requirements for accession: Egypt, Myanmar, Saudi Arabia, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Cambodia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and the Maldives. Countries applied for membership are Syria, Bangladesh, East Timor, Iraq, Algeria and Israel. Several other countries have formally expressed their interest in joining the SCO.    

The SCO member states represent 51% of the World population. NATO countries count for 11 % of the global population.

The SCO requires long overdue improvements and a transition to a new level of interaction. On 18.10.2023, Putin and Xi discussed the implication of the recent summit between China and the Central Asian states, as Beijing’s intention to turn the SCO into a permanent institutional format. Concrete agreements about this issue were made in a meeting between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin on 18 October 2023 on the sidelines of the BRI summit.

Acceptance

It is sad and pitiful to see how the USA continues to fight to maintain its first place in the world rankings. This is bad theatre in front of the global community. I had hoped that they would accept their defeat with more dignity.


[1] World Bank, Global GDP at PPP per country: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD

[2] Senior statistician explains China’s GDP accounting 13.08.2023
https://www.eastisread.com/p/senior-statistician-explains-chinas

[3] Sir Douglas Flint, HSBC Chairman. https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202307/15/WS64b1ce00a31035260b81690d.html?utm_source=CHINA+2020+Notification&utm_campaign=88c863efd2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2021_02_12_10_53_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_678a4a5d7b-88c863efd2-452549627&goal=0_678a4a5d7b-88c863efd2-452549627&mc_cid=88c863efd2&mc_eid=7d4a74e54e